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Again, why is Penang opting for a RM10b LRT instead of a RM1b ART?
Update
Penang LRT: An unwise use of public funds?
Rosli Khan-14 May 2024, 09:00 AM
The projected passenger numbers, ranging from 5 to 42 million, are unrealistic.
FMT’s recent Penang LRT piece was very interesting to me in several ways. But let me comment on just one fundamental error, the passenger demand study, which stood out like a sore thumb.
To my mind, the projected ridership numbers for the Penang LRT, ranging from five million to a staggering 42 million per year, appear not just unrealistic but downright perplexing, and reflect a glaring oversight in the assessment of passenger demand.
How could the range be so huge, with a yawning gap of 37 million between the lowest and highest estimates? Who concocted such an absurd range of passenger projections in the first place?
Consider this: at a ridership of five million and on an assumed 16-hour daily operation, the LRT would ferry around 13,000 passengers daily, or 815 per hour.
If the LRT operates every 10 minutes, it is expected to carry only 135 passengers. At this demand figure, Penang doesn’t need an expensive LRT. Three big buses or six minibuses could do the job well enough.
However, even at an inflated ridership of 42 million, that daily figure skyrockets to 115,000 passengers, or 7,187 per hour, for 16 hours of operation. Again at a 10 minute-interval, about 1,197 passengers will be carried.
In comparison, the Klang Valley’s second LRT line, comprising the Kelana Jaya line and the Putra Heights extension, operates in a conurbation with a population of about three million.
It carried slightly over 17 million passengers in 2016, averaging 46,575 daily, at 2,910 passengers per hour, or 485 every ten minutes.
But Penang’s population currently stands at 1.74 million, of whom 947,400 live on the mainland against 792,600 on the island.
The proposed line serves only Penang Island, so the upper end of the projected estimate of 42 million passengers is unrealistic.
Accurate data
Such disparities not only boggle the mind but underscore the critical importance of accurate ridership data in shaping the system’s design, train capacities and station configurations.
It’s inconceivable that the government would have failed to scrutinise the traffic consultants responsible for these glaring inconsistencies.
Perhaps the fault lies in flawed passenger demand data or misguided assumptions about commuter preferences.
Either way, a demand model yielding such a vast range of figures should have raised red flags from the outset.
Passenger demand isn’t merely a statistic; it is the cornerstone that shapes system design and, subsequently, cost projections.
Hence, a meticulous demand study is paramount to assessing the necessity for such a facility.
My faith in the validity of this study wanes, especially considering that the original demand study was conducted over a decade ago.
Recent revelations suggest that demand figures were revisited to justify a project which commands over RM10 billion in federal funding.
Is this a case of incompetence, or simply a lack of justifiable reasoning?
Regardless, the Penang LRT project’s myriad flaws render it unsuitable for federal approval.
The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.
KUALA LUMPUR, May 13, 2024: Johor is now opting to build an Autonomous Rapid Transit (ART) system in Johor Bahru instead of the proposed Light Rail Transit (LRT).
State executive councillor Fazli Salleh said the LRT would cost an estimated RM16.7 billion, while the ART would cost only RM7 billion.
This brings to the question, again, why is the DAP-led Penang government, still insisting on building the more expensive LRT instead of an ART?
Penang Chief Minister Chow Kon Yeow had remained mum on his and the government’s decision to spend more on the LRT instead of the cheaper ART.
Who stands to lose or gain in opting for the more expensive LRT?
It is time for Chow to explain the rationale of spending some RM10 billion on the LRT instead of a tenth of the amount or RM1 billion on the ART.
If the ART is good enough and viable to Kuching (Sarawak) and Johor Bahru, why not Penang?
ART would be easy and quick to build and highly flexible in terms of coverage. It would cost one-tenth that of an LRT. It would also be environmentally friendlier.
Yet, the Penang government resisted without sound reasons. It dithered and scrambled to raise RM10 billion to build a single line that would take many years to construct.
Penang governments, including the current DAP-led administration by Chow, are a baffling lot when it comes to wanting to implement a public rail transport system.
No News Is Bad News reproduces below news reports on the issues:
Johor govt now backs cheaper ART instead of RM16bil LRT
FMT Reporters-12 May 2024, 08:37 PM
An elevated autonomous rapid transit system in Johor Bahru would cost just RM7 billion, says a state executive councillor.
A prototype of an ART system undergoing trials in Kuching, Sarawak, last August. The driverless tram-like vehicles are expected to begin operations in 2026. (Bernama pic)
PETALING JAYA: The Johor government now hopes to build an autonomous rapid transit (ART) system in Johor Bahru instead of the initial proposal of a light rail transit (LRT) line.
State executive councillor Fazli Salleh said the LRT would cost an estimated RM16.7 billion, while the ART would cost only RM7 billion.
Fazli Salleh.
He said these valuations were based on an analysis comparing the two transport systems, after a presentation by two consortia proposing the projects, according to Bernama.
The state government hopes the public transport system will be ready by the end of 2026, coinciding with the start of the rapid transit system (RTS) from Johor Bahru to Singapore.
“Congestion will occur at the Bukit Chagar RTS station if the passenger dispersal service (whether the ART or LRT) is not completed in line with the start of operations.
“Thus, the state government supports the proposed construction of an elevated ART to be developed in Johor Bahru to replace the bus rapid transit system that was cancelled by the federal government earlier,” he said.
Fazli said the LRT was more costly due to a need for a new design for elevated sections, while the state government would also have to acquire land for depots, stations and shunting/switching tracks.
He said a special committee will meet in December, involving the economy, finance and transport ministries, the Prime Minister’s Department’s public-private partnership unit and the Johor economic planning division.
This committee already met twice to hear presentations by the two consortia on the LRT and ART systems, he added.
An ART system has been chosen by the Sarawak government for a 52km route through Kuching using driverless tram-like coaches running on rubber tyres and powered by hydrogen fuel cells.
The first phase is expected to be completed by the end of 2025 with operations beginning the following year.
The vehicles will run at street level on dedicated trackless lanes, with each vehicle capable of carrying up to 300 passengers at speeds of up to 70 km/h.
The Sarawak ART replaces a previous proposal for a 3-line Kuching LRT.
Sunday 17 March 2024
Penang baffles with more expensive LRT than cheaper ART
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The first ART route will be called the Blue Line running from Rembus to Riveria over a distance of 27.6km and it may start operation in early 2026. – Bernama photo. For image info, go to https://www.theborneopost.com/2023/12/06/sarawaks-first-art-line-to-be-completed-end-of-2025/
Penang baffles with more expensive LRT than cheaper ART
KUALA LUMPUR, March 17, 2024: Penang governments, including the current DAP-led administration by Chow Kon Yeow, are a baffling lot when it comes to wanting to implement a public rail transport system.
In 2018, a year after the new technology of autonomous rail transit (ART) was introduced in China, Penang Forum suggested to the state government to seriously consider adopting this system.
ART would be easy and quick to build and highly flexible in terms of coverage. It would cost one-tenth that of an LRT. It would also be environmentally friendlier.
Yet, the Penang government resisted without sound reasons. It dithered and scrambled to raise RM10 billion to build a single line that would take many years to construct.
Meanwhile, Sarawak ran with the idea and will soon operate the country’s first ART system.
God only knows why Penang insists on the more expensive LRT than the cheaper ART.
No News Is Bad News reproduces below reports on the LRT and ART:
OPINION
Reconsider Penang LRT: Consider better, cheaper, faster options – Lim Mah Hui
Putrajaya should reconsider its funding for project on financial and technical grounds.
Updated 1 hour ago · Published on 17 Mar 2024 1:19PM
A view of an LRT train in Selangor as it undergoes maintenance. – The Vibes file pic, March 17, 2024
AFTER several failed attempts by the Penang state government to fund a bloated “Penang Transport Master Plan” (PTMP), it turned to the federal government to finance the LRT, the first project of the PTMP.
Most ordinary people would fully support the urgent need for Penang to have an efficient and affordable public transport system. In fact, members of Penang Forum were the ones who suggested this initiative to the state government soon after it won the 2008 state election. Its representatives served pro bono in the Penang Transport Council.
Civil society, however, is strongly opposed to the revised PTMP that the Penang state government is pushing, not only because it is overblown (in 2015, the project was estimated at RM46 billion but will surely cost more now). It is also too car-centric and highway focused and will not solve the transport and mobility challenges of Penang.
The public transport modes pushed by the private sector and proposed in the revised PTMP – elevated LRT and monorail systems to replace trams and buses – are inflexible and limited in coverage. Such transport modes are also financially exorbitant and not viable.
Not only that, the heavy concrete infrastructure for LRT and monorail is environmentally inappropriate and destructive for Penang, which is renowned for its architectural heritage and historical streetscape.
Exorbitant price in billions
In 2018, a year after the new technology of autonomous rail transit (ART) was introduced in China, Penang Forum suggested to the state government to seriously consider adopting this system. Such a system would be easy and quick to build and highly flexible in terms of coverage. It would cost one-tenth that of an LRT. It would also be environmentally friendlier.
Yet, the state government resisted without sound reasons. It dithered and scrambled to raise RM10 billion to build a single line that would take many years to construct.
Meanwhile, Sarawak ran with the idea and will soon operate the country’s first ART system.
The Star reported that the state’s 70km ART network would cost RM80 million per km.
Compare this to Penang’s proposed 20 km LRT line estimated to cost RM10 billion, ie RM500 million per km, which is roughly equivalent to the RM540 million per km for the Kuala Lumpur LRT3 system.
And that is just for one line from Komtar to the airport.
Are we now looking at RM25 billion to RM30 billion for the LRT network to cover the entire state of Penang, including a cross-channel link?
Compare this to the original Penang transport blueprint prepared by consultants from Halcrow: they had estimated that the entire public transport system – trams (including elevated sections), buses and water taxis – for the whole of Penang state would come up to just RM10 billion.
Concerns about low ridership
As early as 2015, we highlighted unrealistic ridership projections and the non-financial viability of the Komtar-airport LRT line.
The Gamuda-led SRS Consortium, which had proposed the line, had projected a totally unrealistic initial annual ridership of 42 million for a population catchment of about 250,000 people. With a projected annual operation and maintenance cost of RM170m and an average fare of RM4 per ride, the project was expected to break even.
However, if the ridership were 8 million – a more realistic number that we estimated – the deficit would rise to RM138m. That’s a quarter of the state government’s annual revenue. (Significantly, a few years later, Gamuda reduced its projected ridership to 8 million.)
Despite the hundreds of billions of ringgit spent on the mass rapid transit (MRT), LRT and monorails in the Klang Valley, Transport Minister Anthony Loke revealed that the public transport modal share there is only 15%.
It is common knowledge among transport experts that splashing money on an LRT network alone without putting in place proper supporting policies will not solve mobility problems. Issues of connectivity, flexibility, first and last-mile accessibility, punctuality, priority lanes for public transport vehicles, punctuality and affordability have to be adequately addressed.
We urge the government not to repeat the mistakes of the Klang Valley public transport experience.
Given all this, the Penang LRT system should be meticulously reviewed technically not only for its claimed ability to resolve transport mobility but also because of the high costs involved.
At a time when Malaysia is facing challenging financial constraints and when ordinary people are struggling with their daily needs, the amount of funding required for the Penang LRT is exorbitant.
Do we need to spend extravagant sums on mega-projects that may not deliver promised results when better, cheaper and faster alternatives are available? As the premier of Sarawak recently said, his state is ready to share its experience in this journey. – The Vibes, March 17, 2024
Lim Mah Hui is an economist and former international banker
Premier: Sarawak changed from LRT to ART due to lower costs
BY RINTOS MAIL ON DECEMBER 16, 2022, FRIDAY AT 2:52 PMSARAWAK
Abang Johari (third right) checks the ART’s routes on a topographic map. From left are Dr Sim, Sarawak Metro CEO Mazli Mustaffa, Abdul Aziz, Lee, and Rubiah. – Photo by Chimon Upon
KUCHING (Dec 16): The state government changed its public transport plans from a light rail transit (LRT) system to the Autonomous Rapid Transit (ART) because of the lower costs, said Premier Datuk Patinggi Tan Sri Abang Johari Tun Openg.
He said implementing the ART project to modernise Sarawak’s public transport system is within the state government’s means.
“In terms of costs, the whole project that covers Kuching, Samarahan, and Serian will cost RM6 billion.
“As it may take about six or seven years to complete, it means your budget, cash flow, is about RM1 billion a year.
“And this is within our means, and with the amount we are going to provide good service in our public transport system,” he told a press conference after launching the Kuching Urban Transportation System (KUTS) project – Phase 1 in Kota Samarahan today.
Abang Johari said although he was criticised initially, over time it has become clear from the cost benefit analysis that the project’s benefits exceed its costs.
He said aside from providing a sophisticated, efficient, and friendly public transport system to commuters, the KUTS project is also creating job opportunities for Sarawakians.
In terms of human resources, he said the ART system involves high technology.
“And today we have seen Sarawakians who worked with Mass Rapid Transit (MRT) in Kuala Lumpur coming back and they are working with Sarawak Metro now because they have got the experience.
“It means we have created jobs that allow people to earn quite a high pay. This project will surely bring benefits to Sarawakians who have studied in the field of information technology, public transport, and in human relations,” he said.
Abang Johari pointed out that another benefit of the ART system is that it will operate on a schedule, where passengers will know when the ART will arrive for them to travel to their respective destinations.
He said the ART in Sarawak will be the first in the Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean) region where the public transport system uses green energy with hydrogen-powered vehicles.
He said the project will part of the state’s green economy, where Sarawak will use green energy to manage and move its public transport system.
“This will certainly sustain our environment as well as give good public transport services to the public.
“If in Samarahan, students will want to have a very good public transport system within their affordability; which is faster mobility at a fixed price.
“Aside from that, tourists can onboard the ART and they can go anywhere they like, especially if they want to go to Damai and also other places of interest,” he said.
Abang Johari said the ART is a facility the public at large need and expects to build the system in other areas.
“Maybe not within my time. Other people will continue because this is the latest mode of transport.
“Even Singapore now is transitioning towards a green economy. And, apparently, we are quite advanced in terms of green economy,” he said.
Among those present were Deputy Premier Dato Sri Dr Sim Kui Hian, Transport Minister Dato Sri Lee Kim Shin, Deputy Minister of Rural and Regional Development Datuk Rubiah Wang, and Sarawak Economic Development Corporation (SEDC) chairman Tan Sri Datuk Amar Abdul Aziz Husain.
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