Beginning of the end of secular democracy?

 No News Is Bad News

UPDATED (Bottom of story)

Beginning of the end of secular democracy?

KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 13, 2023: No News Is Bad News reproduces below DAP political strategist Liew Chin Tong’s take on the just-concluded elections in six states.

He pens off with this:

Having said that, if nothing drastic is done then, folks get ready! This is the beginning of the end of secular democracy.

NB: The visuals are inserted by No News Is Bad News. Only the text is by Liew.

By YB Liew Chin Tong ...

In the aftermath of the six state elections in Penang, Selangor, Negeri Sembilan, Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu, at a glance it seems that Perikatan Nasional has gained ground at the expense of Pakatan Harapan and Barisan Nasional.

But there is more than meets the eye. What Perikatan Nasional achieved on 12 August is as far as it can get.

These are the realities on the ground:

It was unfortunate that the opposition PN had been questioning the legitimacy of the Unity Government despite Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim's clear and solid parliamentary confidence support on 19 December 2022.

PN's narrative up until the state elections was that if PH had lost Selangor, the collapse of the federal Unity Government would soon follow.

A 3:3 verdict last night, which was predicted by most pollsters, has put an end to any talks of a mid-way change of government to replicate the Sharaton coup.

Constant posturing of an imminent change of government won’t gain much traction anymore, apart from keeping PN hardcore supporters in ecstasy. PN will have to accept the reality that they did not win the 15th general election and thus have to serve the remaining term by presenting itself as an effective opposition, which it doesn't seem to be capable of.

During the elections, PN chairman Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin repeated his constant message that his coalition would form the Selangor government if 90% of Malay voters voted for PN. He  was surprisingly frank in his view that a change of government in Selangor would only happen if almost all Malays swung to PN, due to the multiethnic nature of the state.

Most parts of Malaysia are more like Selangor than Kedah, Kelantan or Terengganu. To win federal power through a general election, the winning coalition will have to win across ethnic lines. Winning votes from one community is not enough to gain power.

Will the Unity Government triumph in the 16^th General Election that must be held in 2027? Or will it succumb to the Taliban-like PAS and Perikatan Nasional racial and religious bigots led by Muhyiddin “I Am Malay First” Yassin.

Structurally, PN is handicapped. The dominant Malay coalition could only mobilise Malay anger but failed to win non-Malay support.

Ideally, the nation benefits if PN makes a serious attempt to win more than just Malay votes. Such a move would create a full-fledged two-coalition structure with both sides competing effectively for votes from all ethnicities, and therefore lowering ethnic tension caused by PN's mobilisation of Malay anger.

If PN refuses to build a meaningful multiethnic coalition in time for the next general election, the Unity Government will likely be the default winner.

PN's failure to win Selangor from the Unity Government means no more coup to topple the Anwar government. This also means that the political leadership of Muhyiddin and PAS President Tan Sri Abdul Hadi Awang will become less relevant by the day.

PN’s most effective political leaders are likely to be Kedah Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor and Terengganu Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Ahmad Samsusi Mokhtar. Beneath Sanusi’s spontaneous and rancorous political style is a brilliant Trump-like populist. Samsuri is not talked about much nationally yet he is consequentially important because of his effectiveness as a strategist and by virtue of him holding the Menteri Besar post. For the first time since the Young Turks that included Hadi launched a party coup 40 years ago in 1982, PAS is now likely to witness a major generational shift soon.

Once PAS transitions into the Sanusi-Samsuri generation, no one can rule out a spectacular resetting of directions.

Bersatu is now without a power base, and is inevitably being squeezed by PAS. It will take a lot of cohesiveness and determination for Bersatu to persevere for three to four years into the next general election.

I am not writing off Bersatu just yet but the writing is on the wall for Datuk Seri Azmin Ali. While Azmin won the Hulu Kelang state seat, he seems to have no political future. Outside his own party, he is constrained by the multiethnic character of Selangor and his own inability to operate without government resources and powers. Within Bersatu, he is already being marginalised by Datuk Seri Hamzah Zainuddin’s camp.

The other long-term implication of the 6-state elections is that the three-coalition battles between the 14th general election (PH versus BN vs PAS) and the 15th general election (PH versus BN versus PN) has officially ended.

The political structure from now until GE16 will be a straight fight between the Unity Government and PN, unless PN is imploded before the next general election.

The effort to mobilise Malay-only anger will wane once the anger is maxed out and ventilated, and when the Unity Government can finally govern properly with the support of all ethnic groups.

Liew Chin Tong

Facebook post,

13th Aug 2023, 1.54pm

A summary of the 2023 state election results in six states

1) Both camps maintained a 3-to-3 ruling power, with the unity government in Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan; and the green wave of the National Alliance in Kedah, Kelantan and Terengganu. The total turnout was 70.1%, a significant drop from 82.49% in 2018.

By coalition vote share:

Pakatan Harapan (PH) 2,477,668 votes, 36.1%

Barisan Nasional (BN) 921,804 votes, 13.4%

Perikatan Nasional (PN) 3,382,454 votes, 49.3%

Others 74,417 votes, 1.2%

Unity government total vote share 49.5%

National Alliance total vote share 49.3%

By state vote share: (winning side)

Penang - Unity government 66.7%

Selangor - Unity government 60.6%

N.Sembilan - Unity government 60.8%

Kedah - National Alliance 68.9%

Kelantan - National Alliance 69.2%

Terengganu - National Alliance 67.9%

By seats won:

Unity government 80 seats, representing 35.4% of the total seats in the six states

National Alliance 146 seats, representing 64.6% of the total seats in the six states.

2) Apart from the mainstream parties, independent candidates and third-force newcomers failed to break through, with MUDA losing deposits in all 19 seats contested, a non-combat crime, as most voters were more concerned about whether the unity government could retain its three original states.

3) Within the unity government camp, the total number of seats won dropped from 114 to 80. Apart from DAP's slight drop of two seats, the other parties suffered a sharp decline in seats.

PKR 52 —> 26,

DAP 48 —> 46

AMANAH 14 —> 8

UMNO 42 —> 19

4) Within the �National Alliance camp, the total number of seats won rose from 88 to 146, with PAS's strength soaring.

PAS 76 —> 105

Bersatu 12 —> 40

5) This state election was a close fight between the two sides, with many winning seats being narrow victories. I define narrow victories as having a majority of less than 2000 votes. Examples are as follows:

Penang: National Alliance four narrow wins, PH one narrow win, BN one narrow win

Selangor: National Alliance eleven narrow wins, PH three narrow wins

N.Sembilan: National Alliance two narrow wins, PH three narrow wins, BN eight narrow wins

Kedah: PH one narrow win

Kelantan: PH one narrow win

Terengganu: National Alliance one narrow win

6) The National Alliance's narrow wins in Selangor led to its rise, from six seats to 22. PKR lost half of its seats in Selangor. The smallest margin of victory among the National Alliance's winning seats was only 30 votes.

Examples:

Taman Medan 30 votes

Gombak Setia 58 votes

Sungai Kandis 167 votes

Dengkil 407 votes

Bukit Melawati 877 votes

7) Terengganu was swept by a green wave, with National Alliance winning all seats and UMNO left with none.

8) In Kelantan, AMANAH successfully planted its flag by winning one seat through a narrow victory, achieving a breakthrough; while UMNO only managed to retain one seat (down from eight in the previous term).

9) In Kedah, Gerakan successfully broke its duck by winning Kulim, a southern technological hub; among the three unity government assemblymen who won in Kedah, all were Chinese; AMANAH failed to defend its seats; PAS swept all the seats it contested in Kedah; UMNO suffered a crushing defeat.

10) In Negeri Sembilan, the unity government remained strong, but National Alliance managed to break its duck by winning five seats; all eight seats won by UMNO were narrow victories.

11) In Penang, DAP unsurprisingly won all the seats it contested, but one of the former strongholds of the prime minister, Permatang Pauh, lost all three state seats to the opposition; as in Selangor, PKR also lost half of its seats; the National Alliance grew stronger in the island's hinterland and the mainland's northern part. 

Does he really have the political will to act swiftly to defend multiracial Malaysia against the Taliban-like racial and religious bigots who are shattering national unity and harmony?

Conclusion:

The unity government achieved its goal of retaining three state governments, but the "hope for 3 + 1" was apparently just some encouraging words to boost morale.

Undeniably, although it was a "successful retention of three" on the surface, the reality was that the green wave brought a chilling wind, especially for PKR and UMNO.

DAP showed resilience in this state election, while AMANAH did well too, except for losing in Kedah where the wind was blowing fiercely.

Many of  UMNO's original supporters, especially Malay votes, abandoned UMNO and switched to the National Alliance, presumably due to their disgust with UMNO, resulting in only 19 seats out of 127 contested. This performance can no longer be described as a "defeat", but a professional term called "annihilation".

Some states arranged for holidays after winning the election, which was really reprehensible.

This election continued the green wave of the national election at the end of last year, coupled with the global economic slowdown this year, but prices did not fall as much as politicians promised during the campaign, causing some ethnic compatriots to generate grievances, on the other hand, the National Alliance's manipulation strategy on race and religion issues was tried and tested, boosting its momentum.

Will the central power be shaken?

Although many people say that BN may switch sides at any time, I personally think that the possibility is not high, for the following reasons:

1) UMNO, which lost a lot of seats, would only be a third wheel if it switched to support the National Alliance, losing its voice completely and only surviving under the eyes of PAS and Bersatu, and its future status would surely decline further, waiting to be replaced.

2) Its current treatment in the unity government is not bad, and if it switched to support the National Alliance, its existing benefits and status would disappear in an instant, and it would also have time to transform.

3) Under the anti-hopping law, if  UMNO's MPs want to support the National Alliance privately, they can only quit the party and then hold by-elections. Whether they can win or not is another matter, and they also have to face lawsuits.

4) East Malaysian parties' cooperation with the National Alliance may face resistance, and switching sides may not be easy either.

These reasons may lead to a more stable central power.

After this battle, PKR and UMNO were given a green hat by the National Alliance, and they must reflect on their mistakes;

especially UMNO must do something, whether it is reform or something else, whether Zahid will continue to brazenly hold on to his position as leader is unknown; but he will definitely face more pressure from the grassroots within the party.

The unity government must work hard on governance in the next four years, and also do a good job of voter propaganda, to retain the lost middle voters, rather than appease extremist factions.

Khairy should be happy with this result, his show "keluar sekejap" directly implies that he temporarily left politics to recuperate, but at the same time he continues to pay high attention to political issues, to fight with war, and once Zahid is forced out he will turn his sunset into a sunrise.

Oh? The stock market?

The thorn in the flesh has been removed, and investment sentiment should improve.

Having said that, if nothing drastic is done then, folks get ready! This is the beginning of the end of secular democracy.

Chin Tong has it all wrong about PN’s limitations

On Anwar Ibrahim and the limitations of the Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional alliance.

Letter to the Editor - 13 Aug 2023, 8:59pm

 

From Kassim Abdul Samad

Allow me to provide a rebuttal to the letter from Liew Chin Tong on how Saturday’s elections in six states have exposed Perikatan Nasional’s limitations.

First, he talked about the end of mid-term changes of government. With the elections in six states done and dusted, Liew does not expect a ‘Sheraton Move 2.0’ to take place. But the way he’s referred to it is as though a political coup with MPs switching sides is a domain exclusive to PN.

Lest he forget, it was Anwar Ibrahim who claimed “I have the numbers” in the run-up to Sept 16, 2008 in an attempt to topple then-prime minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. Surely Liew knows this, as he’d just been elected MP for Bukit Bendera.

In September 2020, Anwar pulled the same stunt with his “strong, formidable, convincing majority” following the resignation of Muhyiddin Yassin as prime minister. At the time, Anwar and Pakatan Harapan’s other leaders expressed a willingness to work with Umno’s court cluster.

And let’s not forget how Anwar triggered the defections of Parti Bersatu Sabah state assemblymen to overthrow the legitimately elected Joseph Pairin Kitingan in 1994.

Anwar’s veneer

Liew should stop pretending that beneath Anwar’s “democrat” veneer, there isn’t a sinister, power-hungry opportunist who’d stop at nothing to win and retain power, even to the point of subjugating democratic processes.

Liew should stop smearing PN about political “frogs” when Anwar has always been at the top of this game for decades.

Secondly, Liew talked about the limitations of PN leveraging anger solely among the Malays – whatever that means. The surge in support for PN since the 2022 general election is attributed to the electorate’s distrust of PH in dealing with public welfare, especially after both PH and Barisan Nasional went against their word and joined forces to satiate their respective lusts for power.

Politics aside, the current unity government has failed to address many key bread-and-butter issues confronting the public, such as the rising cost of living. These are issues that affect all Malaysians, not just the Malay community.

The low voter turnout on Saturday, including among Chinese voters, is indicative of the electorate’s frustration with the current government.

Stagnant PH

And since Liew brought up the issue of community support, perhaps he should remember that PH, anchored by the Chinese-dominated DAP in terms of MPs and state legislators, has barely made headway since the 2018 general election. The only exception perhaps is Kota Lama in Kelantan which was won by an Amanah representative on Saturday.

In other words, the DAP-dominated PH is clinging to its diminishing fixed-deposit seats despite a rapidly-changing national demography that works against the coalition’s interests. Good luck in two or three general elections from now.

Liew’s third assertion, that Saturday’s elections signal the end of the era of Muhyiddin, Abdul Hadi Awang and Azmin Ali, is nonsensical.

Last I checked, Bersatu and PAS, especially the latter, made significant gains on Saturday. Azmin, too, defied the odds and claimed victory in a supposedly PH urban stronghold in Selangor.

Kon Yeow v Guan Eng

How is it that these people have outlived their usefulness? Perhaps Liew is conflating PH dynamics with that of PN’s. As we know, the knives were out and trained on outgoing chief minister Chow Kon Yeow in Penang, despite DAP’s electoral success on Saturday.

How else would you explain the speed with which Chow was sworn in for another term as chief minister, barely hours after winning? And why was party stalwart Lim Guan Eng noticeably absent from the gathering on Saturday night, where Chow announced PH’s victory in the state?

Clearly, Chow was trying to stave off a coup from his predecessor. That’s DAP for you, trying to kick out a winner – a concept alien in organisations whose leaders are not power-crazy.

Liew also claimed the era of three-cornered fights is over unless PN implodes.

First of all, there is nothing wrong with multi-cornered fights: it only makes democracy all the more vibrant.

Umno implosion

Unless Liew is afraid that parties like Muda will split votes with PH, as happend in Sungai Kandis, Selangor, this weekend, what is he so worried about? In democracy, the more the merrier. Is Liew, like Anwar, also a faux democrat?

Secondly, if there’s going to be an implosion, it would be within PH-BN, not PN. As we know, the PN partnership is already very strong, while the PH-BN alliance is kept together by Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s desperation to avoid jail and nothing more.

As it stands, Umno fared disastrously on Saturday and supporters including former Cabinet minister Idris Jusoh have already called for Zahid’s resignation. There’s a limit to the patience of Umno grassroot members as they see their party being rejected due to one man.

If I were Liew, I would instead brace for an internal revolt in Umno, which would have severe consequences for the longevity of the unity government.

Kassim Abdul Samad is an FMT reader.

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.